
5/11/25
Sunday 10:16pm
Date Posted: 5/11/25
As of today here is Grok's projection for the 2026 midterm elections:
House of Representatives (435 seats):
Democrats: 226 seats (+11)
Republicans: 209 seats (-11)
Independents: 0 seats
Reasoning: Democrats gain 10 seats (net) due to midterm trends, Trump’s 43% disapproval, and competitive districts, flipping the House with a narrow majority.
Senate (100 seats):
Republicans: 52 seats (-1)
Democrats: 46 seats (+1)
Independents: 2 seats (Sanders, King, caucusing with Democrats)
Reasoning: Democrats hold Georgia and Michigan but lose North Carolina, netting 0–1 loss. Republicans retain Senate control due to a favorable map.
Answer: After the 2026 elections, I project the 120th Congress (2027–2029) will have a House with 226 Democrats, 209 Republicans, and 0 Independents, flipping control to Democrats with a narrow majority. The Senate will likely have 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 Independents (caucusing with Democrats), with Republicans retaining control. This reflects midterm losses for Republicans, driven by Trump’s polarizing policies (e.g., deportations, tax cuts) and economic risks, but a Senate map favoring GOP retention.
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